Will the debate over gay marriage matter when November rolls around? COLLEEN LONG takes a look whether the issue is likely to resonate with voters.
Former Alabama Chief Justice Roy Moore, honorary chairman of the Alabama Coalition Against Same-Sex Marriages, is joined by ministers from around the state during a news conference on the steps of the Alabama Statehouse in January. (AP Photo/Rob Carr)
Partners of 13 years, Dana Waters and Susan Morgan listen to speakers during a March rally in Seattle in support of legalized marriage for same-sex couples. (AP Photo/Scott Cohen)
The issue of gay marriage has resurfaced again, this time as a resurrected proposal for a constitutional ban that most politicians say has no chance of passing a test vote -- let alone gaining the majorities required to get through Congress.
President Bush has spoken in favor of the ban several times, and the Senate debate takes place against a backdrop of congressional and gubernatorial primary campaigns. Politically, a lot is at stake: The November elections could change the control of Congress from the GOP to the Democrats, especially given Bush's declining numbers.
So will the gay marriage debate play a major role in deciding what party controls the U.S. House and Senate after November?
All Senate Democrats -- except one, Ben Nelson of Nebraska -- say they oppose the amendment. Together with moderate Republicans, the Democrats are expected to block a yes-or-no vote, killing the measure for the year.
Critics say Bush's efforts to get the debate on the congressional agenda are primarily aimed at energizing conservative voters for the November elections. Even Sen. Wayne Allard, R-Colo., who sponsored the measure, acknowledged that politics played a part in the timing of the debate, to force senators to take a stand and answer for their votes on the campaign trail.
Under the amendment, states would be prohibited from recognizing same-sex marriages. To become law, the amendment would need two-thirds support in the Senate and House, and then would have to be ratified by at least 38 state legislatures.
In theory, the idea of such a ban has support: More than half of Americans, 58 percent, said in an ABC News poll released Monday that same-sex marriages should be illegal. But only four in 10 said they support amending the Constitution to ban gay marriage, while a majority said states should make their own laws on the matter.
Whatever the polls say, Thomas Schaller, a political science professor at the University of Maryland, Baltimore County, said gay marriage won't likely affect the elections much.
"Everyone's for handicap access to buildings, but you're not going to win an election on that," he said. "It matters most to a handful of people who vote Republican anyway and aren't going to sway anything."
The White House played down the significance of Bush's speeches related to the ban, and press secretary Tony Snow has said the president was not personally lobbying senators to pass the amendment.
Schaller said Bush's response to the debate is a way to distract the public from other topics that could be seen as failing in the GOP.
"It's the politics of distraction. What other subject can he talk about? He doesn't like to talk about Iraq and he can't go lecture in fiscal responsibility. Gay Marriage is the bottom of his tool kit and arsenal."
William G. Mayer, a political science professor at Northeastern University, said the gay marriage debate could become a major issue at election time if another state goes the way of Massachusetts, with the courts declaring that not allowing gay marriage is unconstitutional.
"Then it would be on a much higher position in the election," he said.
Mayer said the issue was likely raised so that Republicans could show a difference between the parties, and also a solidarity within their own. The technique is nothing new.
"The Democrats like to bring up stem cell research, repealing tax cuts for the wealthy," he said. "It all comes around again."
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Colleen Long is an asap reporter based in New York.
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