As states vie for earlier and earlier presidential primaries, do the ones left behind matter at all? PAUL CHAVEZ looks at perennially late-voting Montana.
Pity poor Montana.
Every four years, presidential candidates from both parties get cozy with voters in New Hampshire and Iowa, the states that have long kicked off the process of determining the candidates for the White House.
Montana, on the other hand, has gotten used to waiting its turn. For years, the state has been dead last on the primary calendar -- an honor it generally shares with a few other states -- meaning that in most years, the state's voters cast ballots around when the nominees are preparing their party convention acceptance speeches.
And the struggle to retain some political relevance may just be getting worse for places like Montana as several states, including Florida and Michigan, challenge the system by jockeying for earlier primaries.
So what's a voter in johnny-vote-lately Montana to do?
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MONTANA'S GOP: FED UP
Republican leaders tried to take action, floating legislation earlier this year that would move the state primary to February or March, instead of June. But the measure was killed in the state's Democratically controlled Senate due largely to a $1 million price tag.
Undeterred, the Montana Republican Party passed a new rule to hold a party caucus on Feb. 5, when voters in about 20 other states also will cast ballots.
"It was one of those situations where you can sit back and watch the rest of the country pass you by or do something about it," said Chris Wilcox, executive director of the Montana Republican Party. "We'll find out Feb. 5 whether it was a good idea."
The state's Democrats, meanwhile, have no plans to hold an early caucus, said Bob Bergren, the deputy minority leader in the state's GOP-controlled House.
"I don't think we'd draw any more interest here by moving it up," Bergren said.
If all the Western states banded together to have primaries on the same date, then maybe candidates would have some incentive to campaign in the region, he said.
"These small, rural states will never have an impact unless we do it collectively," he said.
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NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIDE
Surely there's some silver lining to Montana's late-in-the-game status -- some way that the primacy of, say, New Hampshire benefits the nomination process. Right?
Andy Smith, an associate professor of political science and director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, admits that he's biased in favor of his state's early-voting status: "We have more elections than any state in the country. We vote all the time."
Smith argues that this has made the state's voters political veterans, which in turn puts them in a unique position to have a positive impact on presidential politics.
"We're used to meeting multiple political candidates and pestering them, a lot of times they're not used to people talking to them like that," Smith said. "It forces them to hone their messages and hone their campaigns."
He believes that New Hampshire simply makes candidates better prepared for the campaign trail. And he noted that President Bush in 2000 and President Clinton in 1992 were the only two candidates in recent memory who won their party nominations without winning New Hampshire.
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ON THE MOVE
Michigan native Bill Ballenger, a former state representative who closely monitors Michigan politics, will be able to vote earlier than ever in 2008 -- the state's primary has been bumped up to Jan. 15.
Whatever Michigan's role, though, he says the system is clearly broken.
"The idea that a couple of states have this dominant position is just ridiculous," Ballenger said.
The moves by states to hold earlier elections means that Iowa, which by state law must be first, will be holding caucuses "in living rooms while bowl games are on the TV set."
Ballenger said he remembers when the primary was held as late as May 20 -- specifically in 1980, when George H.W. Bush upset Ronald Reagan in the Republican primary.
He said that was part of Michigan's history of "strange winners," including Jesse Jackson in the 1988 Democratic caucus and George Wallace in the 1972 Democratic primary.
"We could have a primary on Jan. 15 and still end up being an embarrassment," Ballenger said. "But at least Michigan would be making a difference."
Unlike, say, Montana.
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Paul Chavez is an asap reporter based in Los Angeles.
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